Inmigración y sostenibilidad a medio y largo plazo del sistema de pensiones de jubilación en España

Abstract

The article presents the results obtained from a model of demographic and economic simulation which has calculated the expenses made on retirement pensions and income from Social Security contributions in relation to the estimated evolution of GDP until the year 2060. The model is based on plausible scenarios of migration, derived from assumptions made about the behavior of current immigrants taking into account their patterns of permanence, the evolution of their fertility, their salaries and their employment rate. The demographic and economic effects of such patterns and trends, along with the predictable evolutionary data of the native population, allow a sensitivity analysis of the effect of immigration in the Social Security accounts. The effect of the immigrant population has led to a shift of ten to twelve years in the limits of sustainability of the current system, as well as the relationship between contributions and pensions of migrants, being much higher than that of the natives until 2055, having a tendency to be equal to said year.