Okun’s lawthe effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the temporary layoffs procedures (ERTEs) on Spanish regions

  1. Porras Arena, M. Sylvina 1
  2. Martín Román, Ángel 2
  3. Dueñas Fernández, Diego 3
  4. Llorente Heras, Raquel 4
  1. 1 Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Valladolid, España
  2. 2 Facultad de CC. Sociales, Jurídicas y de la Comunicación, Universidad de Valladolid, Segovia, España
  3. 3 Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Empresariales y Turismo, Universidad de Alcalá, España
  4. 4 Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, España
Revista:
Investigaciones Regionales = Journal of Regional Research

ISSN: 1695-7253 2340-2717

Any de publicació: 2024

Número: 59

Pàgines: 105-125

Tipus: Article

Altres publicacions en: Investigaciones Regionales = Journal of Regional Research

Resum

Las estadísticas oficiales indicaban una ruptura de la ley de Okun en todas las CCAA por la pandemia del COVID-19, sin embargo, aquí se muestra evidencia sobre la vigencia de la ley. Los ERTE permitieron el mantenimiento del vínculo laboral de muchos trabajadores. Desde el punto de vista productivo se observa que la ley continuó vigente mostrando una fuerte relación entre los recursos laborales ociosos y la actividad económica, y, desde el punto de vista social, la aparente ruptura de la ley puede interpretarse como la implementación de una política que mitigó el dramático impacto de la crisis económica.

Referències bibliogràfiques

  • Abraham, K., & Houseman, S. (1994). Does employment protection inhibit labor market flexibility? Lessons from Germany, France, and Belgium. In Rebecca. M. Blank (Eds), Social Protection versus Economic Flexibility: Is there a Trade-Off? (pp. 59-94). University of Chicago Press.
  • Arranz, J., García-Serrano, C., & Hernanz, V. (2019). The changing use of short-time work schemes: Evidence from two recessions. European Journal of Industrial Relations, 25(1), 5-22.
  • Arranz, J., García-Serrano, C., & Hernanz, V. (2021). Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Do short-time work schemes help workers remain in the same firm? International Journal of Manpower, 42(5), 935-959.
  • Ball, L., Leigh, D., & Loungani, P. (2017). Okun's Law: Fit at 50? Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 49(7), 1413-1441.
  • Ball, L., Furceri, D., Leigh, D., & Loungani, P. (2019). Does One Law Fit All? Cross- Country Evidence on Okun's Law. Open Economies Review, 30(5), 841–87.
  • Bande, R., & Martín-Román, Á. (2018). Regional Differences in the Okun ́s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015). Investigaciones Regionales-Journal of Regional Research, 41, 137-165.
  • Barišić, P., & Kovač, T. (2022). The effectiveness of the fiscal policy response to COVID-19 through the lens of short and long run labor market effects of COVID-19 measures. Public Sector Economics, 46(1), 43-81.
  • Boeri, T., & Bruecker, H. (2011). Short-time work benefits revisited: some lessons from the Great Recession. Economic Policy, 26(68), 697-765.
  • Buendía, J. D., & Sánchez, M.D.M. (2017). Output growth thresholds for the creation of employment and the reduction of unemployment: A spatial analysis with panel data from the Spanish provinces, 2000–2011. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 67. 42–49.
  • Burdett, K., & Wright, R. (1989). Unemployment insurance and short-time compensation: The effects on layoffs, hours per worker, and wages. Journal of Political Economy, 97(6), 1479-1496.
  • Cahuc, P., & Carcillo, S. (2011). Is short-time work a good method to keep unemployment down? Nordic Economic Policy Review, 1(1), 133-165.
  • Cahuc, P., Kramarz, F., & Nevoux, S. (2021). The heterogeneous impact of short-time work: from saved jobs to windfall effects. IZA DP,14381.
  • Castle, J., Doornik, J., & Hendry, D. (2021). The value of robust statistical forecasts in the Covid-19 pandemic. National Institute Economic Review, 256, 19-43.
  • Clar-López, M., López-Tamayo, J., & Ramos, R. (2014). Unemployment forecasts, time varying coefficient models and the Okun’s law in Spanish regions. Economics and Business Letters, 3(4), 247–262.
  • Dolado, J., Felgueroso, F., & Jimeno, J. (2021). Past, present and future of the Spanish labour market: when the pandemic meets the megatrend. Applied Economic Analysis, 29(85), 21-41.
  • FitzRoy, F., & Hart, R. (1985). Hours, layoffs and unemployment insurance funding: theory and practice in an international perspective. The Economic Journal, 95(379), 700-713.
  • Gil-Alana, L., Marinko, S., & Buric, S. (2020). Testing Okun's Law: Theoretical and Empirical Considerations Using Fractional Integration. Applied Economics, 52(5), 459-74.
  • Giupponi, G., & Landais, C. (2020). Building effective short-time work schemes for the COVID-19 crisis. VoxEU. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/building-effective-short-time-work-schemes-covid-19-crisis
  • Hijzen, A., & Venn, D. (2011). The role of short-time work schemes during the 2008-09 recession. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, 115.
  • Hijzen, A., & Martin, S. (2013). The role of short-time work schemes during the global financial crisis and early recovery: a cross-country analysis. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 2(5).
  • Izquierdo, M., Puente, S., & Regil, A. (2021). Furlough schemes in the Covid-19 crisis: an initial analysis of furloughed employees resuming work. Banco de España Article, 11/ 21.
  • Jalles, J. (2019). On the Time-Varying Relationship between Unemployment and Output: What Shapes It? Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 66(5), 605-30.
  • Juranek, S., Paetzold, J., Winner, H., & Zoutman, F. (2020). Labor market effects of COVID-19 in Sweden and its neighbors: Evidence from novel administrative data. NHH Dept. of Business and Management Science Discussion Paper, (2020/8).
  • Lea, R. (2020). Coronavirus crisis: Unemployment and redundancies begin to rise. Arbuthnot Banking Group. https://wwwarbuthnotlathamcouk.azureedge.net/cdn/ff/A9A-ADP2VEviR_4QY7otqL-HVzZ1rXpNRRdplUFfWM0/1600679171/public/documents/21%20September%202020.pdf
  • Leandro, Á. (2020). La efectividad de la política fiscal en tiempos de COVID. Economía y Mercados. Sector Público. Caixa Bank Research. 9 de octubre de 2020. https://www.caixabankresearch.com/es/economia-y-mercados/sector-publico/efectividad-politica-fiscal-tiempos-covid?14
  • Martín-Román, Á. L. (2022). Beyond the added-worker and the discouraged-worker effects: the entitled-worker effect. Economic Modelling, 110, 105812.
  • Melguizo, C. (2017). An analysis of Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces. Review of Regional Research, 37, 59–90.
  • Okun, A. (1962). Potential GNP: its measurement and significance. In 1962 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association. https://cowles.yale.edu/author/arthur-m-okun.
  • Osuna, V., & García-Pérez, J. (2015). On the effectiveness of short-time work schemes in dual labor markets. De Economist, 163, 323-351.
  • Osuna, V., & García Pérez, J. (2021). Temporary layoffs, short-time work and COVID-19: the case of a dual labour market. Applied Economic Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-06-2021-0118
  • Pavlopoulos, D., & Chkalova, K. (2022). Short-time work: A bridge to employment security or a springboard to unemployment? Economic and Industrial Democracy, 43(1), 168-197.
  • Pérez, J., Rodríguez, J., & Usabiaga, C., (2003). Análisis dinámico de la relación entre ciclo económico y ciclo del desempleo: Una aplicación regional. Investigaciones Regionales-Journal of Regional Research, 2, 141–162.
  • Perman, R., & Tavera, C. (2005). A Cross-Country Analysis of the Okun's Law Coefficient Convergence in Europe. Applied Economics, 37(21), 2501-13.
  • Perman, R., & Tavera, C. (2007). Testing for Convergence of the Okun's Law Coefficient in Europe. Empirica, 34(1), 45-61.
  • Pope, T., Dalton, G., & Tetlow, G. (2020). The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. Institute for Government, 22.
  • Porras-Arena, M., & Martín-Román, Á. (2019). Self-employment and the Okun's law. Economic Modelling, 77, 253−265.
  • Porras-Arena, M. S., & Martín-Román, Á. L. (2023). The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis. Economic Modelling, 128, 106490.
  • Romero, M., Sosa, J., & Serrano, J. (2021). Impacto económico asimétrico por provincias de la COVID-19: evolución reciente y proyecciones. Cuadernos de Información Económica, 283, 37-42.
  • Stuart, M., Spencer, D., McLachlan, C., & Forde, C. (2021). COVID-19 and the uncertain future of HRM: Furlough, job retention and reform. Human Resource Management Journal, 31(4), 904-917.
  • Usabiaga, C., & Hernández-Salmerón, M. (2021). Reflections on Idiosyncratic Labour Markets: The Spanish and Andalusian Cases. Chapter 1. in Progress in Economics Research 47.
  • Van Audenrode, M. (1994). Short-time compensation, job security, and employment contracts: evidence from selected OECD countries. Journal of Political Economy, 102(1), 76-102.
  • Villanueva, P., & Cárdenas, L. (2021). Unemployment in Spain: The failure of wage devaluation. The Economic and Labour Relations Review, 32(4), 552–574
  • Villaverde, J., & Maza, A. (2009). The Robustness of Okun's Law in Spain, 1980-2004: Regional Evidence. Journal of Policy Modelling, 31(2), 289-97.
  • Villaverde, J., & Maza, A. (2007). Okun’s law in the Spanish regions. Economic Bulletin, 18, 1–11.