Monitorización y control de proyectos utilizando metodología de valor ganado y simulación de monte carlo

  1. Fernando Acebes Senovilla
  2. Javier Pajares Gutiérrez
  3. José Manuel Galán Ordax
Book:
Proceedings from the 18th International Congress on Project Management and Engineering: (Alcañiz, July 2014)

Publisher: Asociación Española de Ingeniería de Proyectos (AEIPRO)

ISBN: 978-84-617-2742-1

Year of publication: 2014

Pages: 222-233

Congress: CIDIP. Congreso Internacional de Ingeniería de Proyectos (18. 2014. Alcañiz)

Type: Conference paper

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Abstract

Earned Value Management (EVM) tells the project manager whether the project has overruns (costs, delays) or it is running better than planned. But taking into account uncertainty, the methodology does not specify whether the deviation from planned values is within the possible deviations derived from the expected variability of the project. In this paper, we propose an extreme different approach for monitoring and control projects under uncertainty. We use Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the “universe” of possible project runs and we define new and innovative graphs. When the project is running, we represent within these graphs where the project is, so that we can know whether project cost or duration is under control at any time, for a given level of confidence.

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